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7% higher asking multiples for small businesses AI can do than in 2019, about the same rise as small businesses overall.

We compared the asking multiples of more than 19,000 small businesses listed for sale on a major online marketplace in 2019 with nearly 40,000 listed today, industry by industry.

Find your industryHow we measured it

Key findings

  1. The typical asking multiple in industries where AI can do much of the work rose 7% from 2019 to 2026, from 2.6x to 2.8x cash flow.
  2. In hands-on industries it rose 3%, from 2.6x to 2.7x. Across all 44 industries we could compare, it rose 7%.
  3. That puts businesses AI can do 4% ahead of hands-on ones, a gap within what chance alone would give. Owners aren't asking less for businesses AI can do.
  4. Measured against revenue instead of cash flow, hands-on businesses pulled ahead. Their price-to-revenue multiple rose 13%, against 2% for businesses AI can do. Websites and e-commerce businesses account for that gap. Their price-to-revenue multiple fell 22%, and without them the group rose 12%.
  5. Within the group, websites and e-commerce businesses fell 1% and IT and software services firms rose 29%.
  6. The listings the archive saved in 2021 and 2022 are too few to say whether any of this moved before or after ChatGPT.

Then and now, by kind of business

Each group's typical asking multiple of cash flow, in 2019 and today.

  1. Where AI can do much of the work: 2.6× 2019, 2.8× 2026, +7%
  2. Hands-on businesses: 2.6× 2019, 2.7× 2026, +3%
  3. Every industry: 2.4× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +7%

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Did the gap open before ChatGPT? Each group's change in typical asking multiple.
2019 to late 2022, before ChatGPT2019 to 2026
Where AI can do much of the work−9%+7%
Hands-on businesses0%+3%
Gap between the two−9%+4%
The 2021 to 2022 column rests on 250 multiples in 9 industries, so it can only show a large shift.

Every industry, then and now

The median asking multiple of cash flow in 2019 and today, for each industry with at least 30 multiples in both years.

Where AI can do much of the work

  1. Websites and e-commerce businesses: 3.0× 2019, 2.9× 2026, −1%
  2. Accounting, tax and law practices: 2.4× 2019, 2.5× 2026, +2%
  3. Insurance agencies: 2.5× 2019, 2.8× 2026, +11%
  4. Architecture and engineering firms: 2.5× 2019, 3.1× 2026, +22%
  5. IT and software services firms: 2.8× 2019, 3.6× 2026, +29%

Hands-on businesses

  1. Trucking companies: 3.7× 2019, 3.0× 2026, −19%
  2. Clothing and fabric manufacturers: 3.1× 2019, 2.7× 2026, −15%
  3. Dry cleaners: 2.3× 2019, 2.1× 2026, −8%
  4. Car washes: 4.8× 2019, 5.0× 2026, +4%
  5. Auto repair shops: 2.5× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +4%
  6. Plumbing and construction contractors: 2.5× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +5%
  7. Cleaning businesses: 2.1× 2019, 2.2× 2026, +6%
  8. HVAC and electrical contractors: 2.7× 2019, 2.9× 2026, +9%
  9. Landscaping and lawn care businesses: 2.4× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +11%
  10. Waste management and recycling companies: 2.9× 2019, 3.3× 2026, +15%
  11. Laundromats: 3.8× 2019, 4.7× 2026, +22%
  12. Moving companies and shipping stores: 2.3× 2019, 2.8× 2026, +25%

Everything in between

  1. Metal fabricators: 3.5× 2019, 3.2× 2026, −9%
  2. Catering companies: 2.5× 2019, 2.3× 2026, −8%
  3. Grocery stores: 2.7× 2019, 2.5× 2026, −7%
  4. Nail salons and beauty studios: 1.9× 2019, 1.8× 2026, −5%
  5. Print shops and promotional products businesses: 2.7× 2019, 2.6× 2026, −4%
  6. Private schools and preschools: 2.7× 2019, 2.6× 2026, −3%
  7. Building material and hardware stores: 3.1× 2019, 3.1× 2026, −1%
  8. Hair salons and barbershops: 2.0× 2019, 2.0× 2026, +3%
  9. Day care and child care centers: 2.9× 2019, 2.9× 2026, +3%
  10. Home health and senior care agencies: 2.9× 2019, 3.0× 2026, +5%
  11. Gyms, fitness studios and spas: 2.5× 2019, 2.7× 2026, +6%
  12. Gas stations: 2.2× 2019, 2.3× 2026, +6%
  13. Restaurants: 2.2× 2019, 2.3× 2026, +7%
  14. Bars, pubs and nightclubs: 2.5× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +7%
  15. Clothing and accessory stores: 2.4× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +9%
  16. Cafes, bakeries and delis: 2.3× 2019, 2.5× 2026, +11%
  17. Sign makers, machine shops and fabricators: 2.9× 2019, 3.2× 2026, +12%
  18. Wholesale distributors: 2.9× 2019, 3.3× 2026, +12%
  19. Convenience stores: 1.8× 2019, 2.1× 2026, +12%
  20. Liquor stores: 2.6× 2019, 2.9× 2026, +12%
  21. Furniture stores: 2.3× 2019, 2.5× 2026, +12%
  22. Pet grooming, boarding and supply businesses: 2.2× 2019, 2.5× 2026, +14%
  23. Flower shops: 2.0× 2019, 2.3× 2026, +15%
  24. Equipment rental businesses: 2.9× 2019, 3.4× 2026, +20%
  25. Limo and passenger transportation companies: 2.5× 2019, 3.0× 2026, +22%
  26. Car dealerships: 2.0× 2019, 2.5× 2026, +28%
  27. Medical practices: 1.9× 2019, 2.6× 2026, +40%

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Exposure to AI against the change

Each dot is an industry. Across is how exposed its work is to language AI on a published score, up is how its median asking multiple moved since 2019.

  • Trucking companies: exposure -1.54, change −19%
  • Clothing and fabric manufacturers: exposure -0.89, change −15%
  • Metal fabricators: exposure -0.85, change −9%
  • Catering companies: exposure -0.73, change −8%
  • Dry cleaners: exposure -1.00, change −8%
  • Grocery stores: exposure -0.19, change −7%
  • Nail salons and beauty studios: exposure -0.31, change −5%
  • Print shops and promotional products businesses: exposure -0.32, change −4%
  • Private schools and preschools: exposure 1.45, change −3%
  • Websites and e-commerce businesses: exposure 0.66, change −1%
  • Building material and hardware stores: exposure 0.35, change −1%
  • Accounting, tax and law practices: exposure 1.91, change +2%
  • Hair salons and barbershops: exposure -0.31, change +3%
  • Day care and child care centers: exposure 0.41, change +3%
  • Car washes: exposure -1.11, change +4%
  • Auto repair shops: exposure -1.11, change +4%
  • Plumbing and construction contractors: exposure -0.93, change +5%
  • Home health and senior care agencies: exposure 0.81, change +5%
  • Gyms, fitness studios and spas: exposure -0.57, change +6%
  • Cleaning businesses: exposure -1.61, change +6%
  • Gas stations: exposure -0.11, change +6%
  • Restaurants: exposure -0.77, change +7%
  • Bars, pubs and nightclubs: exposure -0.65, change +7%
  • Clothing and accessory stores: exposure 0.57, change +9%
  • HVAC and electrical contractors: exposure -0.93, change +9%
  • Cafes, bakeries and delis: exposure -0.77, change +11%
  • Landscaping and lawn care businesses: exposure -1.61, change +11%
  • Insurance agencies: exposure 2.09, change +11%
  • Sign makers, machine shops and fabricators: exposure -0.74, change +12%
  • Wholesale distributors: exposure 0.28, change +12%
  • Convenience stores: exposure -0.19, change +12%
  • Liquor stores: exposure 0.23, change +12%
  • Furniture stores: exposure 0.19, change +12%
  • Pet grooming, boarding and supply businesses: exposure -0.59, change +14%
  • Flower shops: exposure -0.26, change +15%
  • Waste management and recycling companies: exposure -1.43, change +15%
  • Equipment rental businesses: exposure -0.27, change +20%
  • Limo and passenger transportation companies: exposure 1.27, change +22%
  • Laundromats: exposure -1.00, change +22%
  • Architecture and engineering firms: exposure 1.07, change +22%
  • Moving companies and shipping stores: exposure -1.54, change +25%
  • Car dealerships: exposure -0.09, change +28%
  • IT and software services firms: exposure 1.75, change +29%
  • Medical practices: exposure 1.04, change +40%

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Is the business you're buying exposed to AI?

We read a target's work the way this study reads an industry, and tell you what AI can already do in it. How we work with private equity.

Book a thirty-minute callHow a diagnosis works

The data.

We read the Internet Archive copies from 2019 to November 2022, and September 2026.

Every industry (CSV)
How we did it

Then: the Internet Archive's copies of listing pages on a major online marketplace for small businesses. 19,431 listings saved in 2019 and 2020, nearly all from July to October 2019, and 1,809 saved from January 2021 to November 29, 2022, the day before ChatGPT launched. Now: 39,587 established businesses for sale on the same marketplace, read in September 2026 for our study of asking multiples.

Every snapshot follows the same rules. Established businesses only. Duplicates out. A multiple is the asking price over the cash flow the listing shows, kept between 0.3 and 20, and left out when the price includes the property or when the business owns its property but the listing doesn't show its value.

Industries: each listing's own marketplace category, mapped onto the same 62 industries as our industry pages. An industry gets a figure when it has at least 30 multiples in both 2019 and 2026, which 44 do. None of the 2019 listings carried a category of its own for Korean restaurants, Mediterranean restaurants, chiropractic practices, flooring contractors, insulation contractors, marketing and advertising agencies, painting contractors, pool service businesses, quick service restaurants, restoration and remediation companies and roofing contractors, so they have no 2019 figure.

Exposure to AI: Felten, Raj and Seamans, How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries? (2023) score each industry's exposure to language AI from the tasks its workers do. We matched each industry to its code in their list, checked by a second reader. Their score rates talking to customers as exposed, so we also had our AI model rate how much of the work customers pay for AI software could do. An industry counts as one where AI can do much of the work only when both put it high, and as hands-on only when both put it low. Groups were fixed before any 2019 multiple was computed.

A group's change is the average of its industries' changes in median multiple, weighted by their multiples, so a shift in which industries are listed doesn't move it. The range around the gap comes from redrawing the listings 2,000 times.

These are asking prices, not sale prices. The 2019 copies are the pages the archive happened to save, not a planned sample. Where a newer category took businesses from an older one, such as marketing firms once filed under printing, the older industry's 2019 figure still includes them. Rates, COVID and private equity buying moved industries between 2019 and 2026 too, which is why the comparison is between groups of industries and why we check the years before ChatGPT.

Cite this study

Fulkerson Advisors. (2026). Business values before and after ChatGPT: asking multiples for 19,431 small businesses for sale in 2019 and 39,587 in 2026. https://www.fulkersonadvisors.com/research/ai-small-business-valuations

The charts and the CSV are free to use with a link to this page.

Questions

Has AI lowered small business valuations?

Not in what owners ask. Since 2019 the typical asking multiple rose 7% across the 44 industries we could compare. In industries where AI can do much of the work it rose 7%, and in hands-on industries it rose 3%.

Which small businesses are most exposed to AI?

Six industries, on both a published academic score and our own model's reading: IT and software services firms, architecture and engineering firms, insurance agencies, marketing and advertising agencies, websites and e-commerce businesses, and accounting, tax and law practices.

What multiple do accounting, tax and law practices ask for?

A median 2.5x cash flow today, against 2.4x in 2019.

Is this the price businesses sold for?

No. These are asking prices on listings. Sale prices are rarely public for small businesses.

Where do the 2019 listings come from?

From copies of the marketplace's listing pages that the Internet Archive saved, mostly in the summer and fall of 2019. Today's come from our September 2026 read of the same marketplace.